Flipping the Model

"He'll flip you. Flip you for real." -- Fenster

Right now, the typical model for book publishing goes like so:

Trade Cloth (aka hardcover) ➸ Trade Paper ➸ Mass Market Paperback ➸ Ebook

Keeping the ebook in last place is deceptive, because the truth is that ebook versions don’t really have a solid place in this hierarchy yet. Sometimes an ebook comes out before the hardcover, or with the hardcover, or with the trade, or later. There’s no rule. Also, unlike most of the print books, the list price of the ebook can fluctuate wildly over time, depending on a host of factors (only some of which relate to the title’s popularity). But ebooks aside, the TC, TP, MM progression is fairly standard. A book might not start as the beginning (a category romance, for ex, rarely shows up as TC), but they move into cheaper, not pricer, formats over time.

This is wrong. It’s the exact opposite of how books should be published now. Putting a high-priced hardcover out first frontloads risk for everyone: the publisher, the reader/buyer, and the author. A TC that doesn’t sell means crap royalty payments, and renewed desperation to push the trade paper and mass market formats of the title, at a much lower return per book for the author (25% of less = less. That’s math, friends. Or maths, depending on where you're from). The only way to make it up is to sell a lot more copies. But there’s another way.

Flip the model. By putting out the ebook first, readers can buy the title at a lower cost, because there are no printing/distribution costs to speak of (just design, editing, and marketing). Profits are more likely, again due to the lower investment.

And what to do with that money? A smart publisher uses the real income from past purchases of the ebook to bankroll the next format: mass market or trade paper (there’s a strong argument that ebooks are slowly replacing MM sales, so TP might be the next logical step). Non-ebook readers can finally get their paws on the book, and though they pay a bit more, they’ll have a much better idea of what books will be good for them, due to the reviews generated from the ebook readers. That’s less risk for readers, which makes for more confident buyers.

If the trade paper does well alongside the continuing ebook sales, then the publisher can pony up the funds to print a fancy hardcover. This is the book with gorgeous art and special details. This is the book you want on your shelf for years. This is the book you get signed. This is the book you lovingly giftwrap (or ask the nice bookseller at your local indie bookshop to wrap, after which you thank her profusely). This is the book you put under the tree (or near other holiday symbol of choice). If the hardcover book comes last, it’s earned its often weighty place on the bookshelf. It’s wanted. Needed. Beloved. Worth $35 or more.

This is where the new authorial prestige should come in. “Oh yes,” the author says modestly. “My book is in hardcover for this holiday season. Beat out thousands of other titles for the honor. Would you like me to sign your copy?”

At each stage after the low-cost ebook publication, the production costs are paid by previous sales (i.e. proof of success).

At each stage, costs are calculated for that format, and royalties can be adjusted accordingly, with costs remaining transparent.

At each stage, publication can be justified by the numbers behind it. Publishing becomes less of a crap shoot and more of a poker game.

Yes, there’s always an element of risk, of randomness. But the smarter the player, the better chance of a nice payout.

And if it doesn’t work, you try something else. Flipping the model is a new idea. Traditional publishers probably won’t try it much. But agile, efficient independent publishers have little to lose by flipping the model. And a lot to gain.